Negative pricing

Negative pricing

Undid revision 1348730571 by Explodingtnt30 (talk) - please provide a source for this claim - a source from 2023 cannot support a claim "as of 2026"

← Previous revision Revision as of 22:44, 18 April 2026
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''[[MarketWatch]]'' described the situation as "the opposite of so-called short squeeze." In a [[short squeeze]], investors who are [[short position|short]] an asset must cover their positions as the price goes up, leading to a vicious cycle as prices continue to rise. With oil prices in 2020, traders with [[long position|long]] oil positions needed to cover their positions for fear of finding themselves with oil and nowhere to store it. According to ''MarketWatch''{{'s}} analysis, the rapid drop in oil futures prices may have been an artifact of the structure of the futures market rather than an accurate reflection of the supply and demand for oil.{{cite news |last1=Watts |first1=William |title=Why oil prices just crashed into negative territory — 4 things investors need to know |url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-oil-market-just-crashed-below-0-a-barrel-4-things-investors-need-to-know-2020-04-20 |access-date=2 April 2021 |work=MarketWatch}} Negative oil prices "meant the discovery of a new market condition ... an 'oil Everest, but in reverse.' Oil prices not only hit rock bottom, but they also broke the rock."{{Cite web |last=Saefong |first=Myra P. |title=Oil prices went negative a year ago: Here's what traders have learned since |url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-went-negative-a-year-ago-heres-what-traders-have-learned-since-11618863839 |access-date=2022-10-07 |website=MarketWatch |date=19 April 2021 |language=EN-US}} However, prices recovered to pre–[[COVID-19]] levels, and the glut of oil has disappeared.
''[[MarketWatch]]'' described the situation as "the opposite of so-called short squeeze." In a [[short squeeze]], investors who are [[short position|short]] an asset must cover their positions as the price goes up, leading to a vicious cycle as prices continue to rise. With oil prices in 2020, traders with [[long position|long]] oil positions needed to cover their positions for fear of finding themselves with oil and nowhere to store it. According to ''MarketWatch''{{'s}} analysis, the rapid drop in oil futures prices may have been an artifact of the structure of the futures market rather than an accurate reflection of the supply and demand for oil.{{cite news |last1=Watts |first1=William |title=Why oil prices just crashed into negative territory — 4 things investors need to know |url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-oil-market-just-crashed-below-0-a-barrel-4-things-investors-need-to-know-2020-04-20 |access-date=2 April 2021 |work=MarketWatch}} Negative oil prices "meant the discovery of a new market condition ... an 'oil Everest, but in reverse.' Oil prices not only hit rock bottom, but they also broke the rock."{{Cite web |last=Saefong |first=Myra P. |title=Oil prices went negative a year ago: Here's what traders have learned since |url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-went-negative-a-year-ago-heres-what-traders-have-learned-since-11618863839 |access-date=2022-10-07 |website=MarketWatch |date=19 April 2021 |language=EN-US}} However, prices recovered to pre–[[COVID-19]] levels, and the glut of oil has disappeared.


A trial for market manipulation is ongoing against Vega Capital London Ltd., a group of nine independent traders at Essex who bought oil futures with the expectation of profiting from a fall in the price of oil futures.{{clarification needed|date=August 2025|reason=Typically a buyer would expect to profit from an increase in the price of the asset they've bought - how did this group expect the opposite?}} The group is accused of coordinating their trading to artificially push down the price of oil futures. It is estimated that on 20 April they traded more contracts than [[BP]], [[Glencore]], and [[JPMorgan Chase]] at around 29.2% of the total volume in WTI crude oil futures with trade correlations between 96.2% and 99.7%.{{Cite news |last=Rushe |first=Dominic |date=2022-04-13 |title='Essex Boys' case of traders accused of manipulating markets heads for trial |url=https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/apr/13/essex-boys-oil-price-manipulation-trial |access-date=2024-05-26 |work=The Guardian |language=en-GB |issn=0261-3077}}{{Cite web |last1=Vaughan |first1=Liam Vaughan |last2=Chellel |first2=Kit |last3=Bain |first3=Benjamin |date=10 December 2020 |title=The Essex Boys: How Nine Traders Hit a Gusher With Negative Oil |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-12-10/stock-market-when-oil-when-negative-these-essex-traders-pounced |access-date=2024-05-26 |website=www.bloomberg.com}}{{Cite AV media |url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7_WXUMFM_w |title=The Day Oil Went Negative, These Unlikely Traders Made $660M |date=2021-05-11 |last=Bloomberg Originals |access-date=2024-05-26 |via=YouTube}} It is estimated that in total the traders made around $660 million in just a few hours. As of 2026, the trial appears to be ongoing.{{Cite web |last=Goodman |first=Leah McGrath |date=2023-04-21 |title=Three Years Ago, Oil Prices Fell Below Zero. One Man Absolutely Refuses to Give Up on Finding Out Why |url=https://www.thedailyupside.com/industries/energy/three-years-ago-oil-prices-fell-below-zero-one-man-absolutely-refuses-to-give-up-on-finding-out-why/ |access-date=2024-05-26 |website=The Daily Upside |language=en-US}}{{Update inline|date=February 2026}}
A trial for market manipulation is ongoing against Vega Capital London Ltd., a group of nine independent traders at Essex who bought oil futures with the expectation of profiting from a fall in the price of oil futures.{{clarification needed|date=August 2025|reason=Typically a buyer would expect to profit from an increase in the price of the asset they've bought - how did this group expect the opposite?}} The group is accused of coordinating their trading to artificially push down the price of oil futures. It is estimated that on 20 April they traded more contracts than [[BP]], [[Glencore]], and [[JPMorgan Chase]] at around 29.2% of the total volume in WTI crude oil futures with trade correlations between 96.2% and 99.7%.{{Cite news |last=Rushe |first=Dominic |date=2022-04-13 |title='Essex Boys' case of traders accused of manipulating markets heads for trial |url=https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/apr/13/essex-boys-oil-price-manipulation-trial |access-date=2024-05-26 |work=The Guardian |language=en-GB |issn=0261-3077}}{{Cite web |last1=Vaughan |first1=Liam Vaughan |last2=Chellel |first2=Kit |last3=Bain |first3=Benjamin |date=10 December 2020 |title=The Essex Boys: How Nine Traders Hit a Gusher With Negative Oil |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-12-10/stock-market-when-oil-when-negative-these-essex-traders-pounced |access-date=2024-05-26 |website=www.bloomberg.com}}{{Cite AV media |url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7_WXUMFM_w |title=The Day Oil Went Negative, These Unlikely Traders Made $660M |date=2021-05-11 |last=Bloomberg Originals |access-date=2024-05-26 |via=YouTube}} It is estimated that in total the traders made around $660 million in just a few hours. The trial is anticipated to last at least until 2025.{{Cite web |last=Goodman |first=Leah McGrath |date=2023-04-21 |title=Three Years Ago, Oil Prices Fell Below Zero. One Man Absolutely Refuses to Give Up on Finding Out Why |url=https://www.thedailyupside.com/industries/energy/three-years-ago-oil-prices-fell-below-zero-one-man-absolutely-refuses-to-give-up-on-finding-out-why/ |access-date=2024-05-26 |website=The Daily Upside |language=en-US}}{{Update inline|date=February 2026}}


===Electricity===
===Electricity===